Value betting

Value betting. Familiar word? Of course, you definitely came across this concept more than once. But what does it mean and how to find this coveted value, which is positioned as a win-win strategy and promises the opportunity to beat any bookmaker office?

What is the value in sports betting and how is it formed?

In a nutshell, value betting is a bet on profitable odds, the value of which is higher than the probability of the match. So, for example, if the probability is 50%, and the coefficient is 2.16, then the bet on this coefficient will be considered to be value. In order to bet on the value, bettor needs to be able to find bets with a positive ROI, that is, bets with a positive mathematical expectation.

Step-by-step scheme for the search of value is as follows:

  1. Calculate the probability of outcomes of a sporting event.
  2. Substitute the odds that the BC gives on these outcomes.
  3. See if there is a ROI or not at the rate of interest.

How to search for value in sports betting?

The easiest way is to find odds that are much higher than odds on the same events from the world’s leading bookmakers. So do many bettors. But, you see, just to repeat after someone (even if it is a pro) is more likely an amateur way to bet. If you want to reach a fundamentally new level of rates and develop your skill to the level of the best bettors, use professional ways to search for rates with a positive ROI:

  1. Calculation of probabilities on the archive coefficients.
  2. Using a Monte Carlo generator.

Consider each of these methods in more detail

For a start – about the archive of coefficients. Remember that the main task of each bettor (who is striving for a successful career) is to create mathematical betting models. They are necessary for the most accurate prediction of the probabilities of the outcomes of the event. Note that the degree of accuracy is directly proportional to the ease with which you will find bets with a positive ROI. The higher, the easier, respectively. To understand how successful a model is, and how accurately it allows you to predict the outcome of events, it needs to be tested. And on what to test? On the archive of coefficients.

The betting odds archive is an Excel database containing all the matches played and the odds that the bookmakers put up for these events. Let’s open a small secret: every keen professional bettor has an archive of coefficients and constantly uses it to understand how successful and profitable his betting strategy is.

Why is working with the coefficients archives so important and useful? Because to test the success (profitability) of the chosen strategy over a long distance, you will need not 100, not 200 or even 1000 rates. More or less truthful results you can see only after 10,000 bets. In terms of time, it may take up to several years. Agree, rather long and hard psychologically. And it can also become a shame for the years spent aimlessly if the strategy turns out to be losing.

So, in order not to wait for years for the results of the “testing” of the chosen strategy to work with the archives of coefficients. By chasing the chosen mathematical model on the basis of already played matches and the odds on them, you see the effectiveness of the strategy now. Therefore, professionals constantly use coefficients archives, saving time and finding their ROI.

Now about the Monte-Carlo generator

Being a method for solving mathematical problems, the Monte-Carlo model is ideally suited for working with statistics, since it uses random variable modeling. This mathematical model is considered to be one of the most useful and powerful tools for professional betting. In addition, it has a lot of options for use. You can try this method on the PinUp betting website.

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